Forecast Discussion - Wilmington, OH
994
FXUS61 KILN 221420
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
920 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Cold and dry weather is expected today as surface high pressure
moves east of the Ohio Valley. Another weak front on Thursday
will bring additional chances for flurries or a few light snow
showers. Temperatures will remain below normal until we get to
this weekend when seasonable air finally returns to the region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Surface high pressure will shift east today, allowing winds to
persist from the south and temperatures to rebound a bit into
the upper teens to lower 20s by afternoon. Mid- and high-clouds
will also increase as a weak disturbance moves through the
Great Lakes.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Light SW flow will be maintained tonight amidst mostly clear
skies. Temps will still be cold, even by seasonal standards, but
will be quite a bit warmer than we`ve experienced very recently.
Expect that lows will bottom out in the mid/upper single digits
above zero in central/south-central OH and NE KY where winds
will be lightest and skies will be clearest. Further to the W,
particularly near/W of I-75, the maintenance of some light
southerly flow and increasing clouds late should keep temps
generally in the teens. While there is still the expectation for
wind chills near, or slightly below, zero tonight into early
Thursday morning, advisory criteria thresholds are not expected
to be met for the majority, or all, of the ILN FA. But an SPS
may eventually be warranted.
For the daytime Thursday, the longwave trof entrenched across
the ern CONUS will dig back into the OH Vly once again by the
afternoon, with another reinforcing shot of cold air set to
filter back into the region by Thursday night into Friday. This
disturbance, given the seasonably cold air in place, should
provide just enough forcing amidst a meager moisture profile to
generate additional scattered flurry or very light SHSN activity
for the afternoon and evening along the eastward-advancing
front. This will especially be the case across parts of
central/south-central OH and NE KY mid afternoon, where a
dusting to perhaps a few tenths of an inch will be possible.
Highs on Thursday will top out in the mid 20s near/N of I-70 to
the mid 30s S of the OH Rvr.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
On Thursday evening, the ILN forecast area will be in a regime of
cold westerly flow, just behind a somewhat-ill-defined cold front.
Some light snow or flurries may be possible Thursday evening, ending
after 06Z. After that occurred, cold advection will continue into
Friday -- and the overall model trend has been in the colder
direction for Friday. Max temps are now expected to be in the lower
to mid 20s.
Conditions will change a bit over the weekend, as high pressure sets
up over the southeastern states, leading to deeper and stronger
southwesterly flow into the Ohio Valley. This will bring
temperatures above freezing (lower 30s to lower 40s) for the ILN CWA
on Saturday, though maybe a couple degrees cooler on Sunday. By
Sunday into Monday, attention will turn to the deep south, as the
surface high drifts a little further to the southeast and moisture
advection begins heading northward from the Gulf of Mexico. The
chances of this moisture reaching the Ohio Valley, however, have
decreased somewhat based on latest model guidance. The overall flow
pattern aloft is appearing likely to remain very flat and zonal,
with little of the amplification that would be necessary to bring a
surge of theta-e this far north. As a result, PoPs have been limited
to the 20-30 percent range, primarily focused on Monday, and the
southern sections of the ILN forecast area. This may be a mix of
rain and snow, depending on timing, but snow appears favored right
now due to the suppressed nature of the system and the colder air
remaining in place. No significant accumulations are expected either
way.
The pseudo-zonal flow will continue into the first part of next
week, with no clear signs of any large chances for precipitation.
High temperatures will likely remain in the 30s -- notably warmer
than the preceding week, but still slightly below normal for late
January.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. As the
center of the sfc high departs to the E of the region, the calm,
or light/VRB, winds are beginning to pick up a bit, transitioning
more to southerly winds on the order of 5-7kts through 15z.
Southerly winds will increase to around 10 kts past 15z before
subsiding once again past 00z. Some SW LLWS on the order of
40kts will evolve for srn sites toward/past 06z Thursday.
Mid level clouds will overspread the area during the daytime
before clearing once again past 06z Thursday. However,
additional CIGs will move back in past 12z Thursday, bringing
borderline MVFR/VFR CIGs to KCVG toward end of 30-hr TAF.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGs are possible Thursday into Friday, and
again on Sunday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for OHZ026-
034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
KYZ089>100.
IN...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for INZ050-
058-059-066-073>075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...Hatzos
AVIATION...KC
NWS ILN Office Area Forecast Discussion
