Forecast Discussion - Wilmington, OH
189
FXUS61 KILN 111113
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
613 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A low pressure system brings showers this evening into tonight.
Colder air moves in behind the low through the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A deepening low pressure system will approach the Ohio Valley from
the west later today. Ahead of the low, cloud cover increases and
southerly flow lifts temperatures into the 60s by the afternoon. A
modest increase in moisture will be felt with dew points getting
into the 40s.
The slowly strengthening low moves through the Ohio Valley tonight
along with a cold front. Showers, and possibly some thunder, are
expected in the warm sector east of the low. Instability appears to
be very limited by the time the forcing arrives, likely keeping the
low end threat for severe storms to the west. Progressive storm
motion limits forecast storm total QPF to 0.5" or less for most
locations.
Winds shift to the northwest behind the low Thursday morning
advecting in much colder air through Monday. Winds gusts upwards of
25 mph are possible in the wake of the low on Thursday as the low
continues deepening and the pressure gradient tightens behind the
low. Gusty northwesterly flow persists until Sunday although winds
should slowly slacken a little each day. Forecast highs remain in the
40s through Monday with the northwesterly flow behind the low. Some
periods of showers are in the forecast for Thursday and Friday as
shortwave upper level troughs pivot through the Ohio Valley. A few
wet snowflakes could mix into the rain showers on Friday.
Precipitation chances end by the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
After sunrise, any visibility reductions should mix out fairly
quickly. For the rest of the day, VFR conditions are expected to
persist although upper and mid level clouds increase during the day.
After 0000z, showers move in from the west ahead of a low. Some MVFR
ceilings accompany the strongest shower activity along with periodic
visibility reductions. Shower activity diminishes in coverage late
overnight, but widespread MVFR ceilings are likely to develop behind
the low.
Southwesterly flow around 10-15 knots develops by this afternoon
ahead of the low pressure system. Winds quickly shift to the
northwest tonight after the low moves east of the Ohio Valley.
Northwesterly winds could gust upwards of 30 knots on Thursday.
OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities possible through
Friday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Campbell
AVIATION...Campbell
NWS ILN Office Area Forecast Discussion
