Forecast Discussion - Wilmington, OH
293
FXUS61 KILN 201705
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
105 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread precipitation is expected Sunday afternoon into
Monday, with a chance of heavy rain and a few strong storms.
2) Below normal temperatures are expected next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)
An upper level shortwave trough and surface low move through the
Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes on Sunday night into Monday
morning bringing the chance for locally heavy rain and a marginal
risk for severe weather.
The larger concern with this system continues to be the potential
for flooding especially across areas that have already received
large amounts of rainfall from the system earlier this week.
Anomalously high PWATs (1.5+ inches) advect into the Ohio Valley
ahead of the low by Sunday evening. The quickly moistening
environment and increasing ascent along a warm front lifting into
the area will likely support widespread rainfall developing Sunday
evening and Sunday night. Additionally, a strong nocturnal LLJ moves
into the west overnight along with increasing instability (MUCAPE)
which could enhanced rainfall rates. Swaths of 1-2 inches of rain
are likely to occur with locally higher amounts possible.
A marginal risk for severe weather exists ahead of the low on Sunday
evening and Sunday night. Shear profiles become favorable, however
and boundary layer based instability is very limited. Thus, the
severe risk is conditional on sufficient MLCAPE developing.
The showers and storms eventually exit to the east on Monday when
the low moves out of the area.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
Temperatures are likely to remain below average through much of next
week as high pressure builds in from the north. The next chance for
precipitation is on Thursday when an upper level shortwave trough is
forecast to move through the region.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A few light showers and a VFR clouds diminish this afternoon as a
weak boundary works through the area. For the overnight, VFR
ceilings persist. Some fog and visibility reductions are possible at
KILN, KCVG, and KLUK late overnight when winds go calm. Any
visibility restrictions improve after 1200z Sunday.
Westerly winds around 10 knots persist prior to 0000z before
becoming light and variable overnight. Southeasterly winds gradually
increase on Sunday.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Sunday evening through Monday.
MVFR conditions are possible on Sunday night and Monday as well.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Campbell
AVIATION...Campbell
NWS ILN Office Area Forecast Discussion
